I do not have any firewall, i even don't run the xp-internal one BUT had same failure with updating to ver .14
Solution was kinda strange to me, but at least it works
i went to systemsettings -> Windows-Firewall
although, as already said, i don't have it active, i manually added the Eq2mapupdater to the programlist...and *miracle miracle* .. now it works just fine
just for the ones it may help